Actually, there is a universal key that solves all the troubles. 实际上，有一个通用钥匙可以解决所有麻烦。

Actually, life is not like playing chess, because the outcome is often influenced by luck. If luck is good, you might escape even if you previously made mistakes. However, even with good luck, you still need to acknowledge your mistakes. You can’t fail to learn from them just because you were lucky, otherwise, your luck might not hold next time. Conversely, when luck is not on your side, you still need to acknowledge your mistakes, as there is no going back no matter what. But these are all things that become apparent only when the trouble has really appeared.
其实，人生不像下棋，因为结果往往受运气的影响。如果运气好，即使你以前犯了错误，你也可能会逃脱。然而，即使运气好，你仍然需要承认自己的错误。你不能因为运气好就不向他们学习，否则，下次你的运气可能就不成立了。相反，当运气不站在你这边时，你仍然需要承认自己的错误，因为无论如何都没有回头路。但这些都是只有当麻烦真正出现时才会变得明显的事情。

The reason chess is such a good analogy is because it vividly illustrates that the ultimate defeat actually comes from making a mistake many moves earlier – the defeat has been set from that point onwards. Everything that follows is just a meaningless struggle.
国际象棋之所以是一个很好的类比，是因为它生动地说明了最终的失败实际上来自许多步之前的错误——失败从那时起就已经注定了。接下来的一切只是一场毫无意义的斗争。

So, looking further back, it’s about “how not to make that losing move?” rather than “I lost, can I have a do-over?” … Watching a game of chess in silence is really interesting because you always see many people shamelessly wanting a do-over, but they don’t actually know at which move they truly lost. As a result, they end up losing, spending a lot of effort, only to make their loss more complete and appear more foolish…
所以，再往前看，这是关于“如何不做出失败的举动？”而不是“我输了，我可以重来一次吗？静静地看一盘棋真的很有趣，因为你总是看到很多人无耻地想要重来，但他们实际上并不知道他们真正输了哪一步。结果，他们最终输了，花了很多功夫，却让他们的损失更彻底，显得更愚蠢……

So, the people who do not create troubles do not have to solve them either.
所以，不制造麻烦的人也不必解决它们。

Earlier, I wrote an article “How I Manage to Avoid Arguments with My Wife?”, and many people asked, “But what if my wife is unreasonable?” The correct answer is quite harsh: Who made you not consider “being reasonable” as the most important factor in choosing a partner? All the other factors such as wealth, appearance, height, weight, education level, and blood type are just nonsense. The requirement of being reasonable is indispensable. If you made a mistake at this step, the game is lost. It’s tragic because, if someone didn’t care if the other person was reasonable at the beginning, it shows that they themselves are not someone who values reason. So, when they eventually find it troublesome, they are more likely to not realize that they themselves are the trouble… Furthermore, such people are usually the ones who only know how to ask for a do-over but don’t know how to reflect or improve — they are unsolvable.
早些时候，我写了一篇文章《我如何设法避免与妻子的争吵？》，很多人问：“但是，如果我的妻子不讲道理怎么办？正确答案相当苛刻：谁让你不把“通情达理”作为选择伴侣的最重要因素？所有其他因素，如财富、外貌、身高、体重、教育水平和血型，都只是无稽之谈。合理的要求是必不可少的。如果您在此步骤中犯了错误，则游戏将丢失。这是悲剧性的，因为如果有人一开始不在乎对方是否通情达理，那就说明他们自己不是一个重视理性的人。所以，当他们最终发现麻烦时，他们更有可能没有意识到他们自己就是麻烦……此外，这些人通常是那些只知道如何要求重做，但不知道如何反思或改进的人——他们是无法解决的。

Here, I used “he”, not specifically indicating males. From a statistical perspective, these situations occur more frequently among females, mainly due to the societal value orientation. I reiterate, I am a steadfast feminist, with no inclination to discriminate against women.
在这里，我使用了“他”，而不是特指男性。从统计学的角度来看，这些情况在女性中更频繁地发生，主要是由于社会价值取向。我重申，我是一个坚定的女权主义者，没有歧视女性的倾向。

People who refuse to acknowledge their apparent defeat are comical; they will create another system to survive. For example, there are many active relationship experts in China, creating many theories, even “systems”, fruitlessly attempting to solve problems that are already unsolvable…
拒绝承认自己明显失败的人是滑稽的;他们将创建另一个系统来生存。例如，中国有很多活跃的关系专家，创造了许多理论，甚至是“系统”，徒劳地试图解决已经无法解决的问题……

Life cannot be without troubles. So, when faced with trouble, the methodology should be firm:
生活不可能没有烦恼。因此，当遇到麻烦时，方法论应该是坚定的：

Acknowledge the trouble that has occurred!
承认已经发生的麻烦！

Examine where the root of the problem lies, where are your own issues?
检查问题的根源在哪里，你自己的问题在哪里？

To avoid the same trouble in the future, what do you need to correct and improve?
为了避免将来出现同样的麻烦，您需要纠正和改进什么？

Furthermore, how can you be “prophetic”? The methodology is:
此外，你怎么能成为“先知”？方法是：

Observe more, research more, and think more about others’ failures and troubles.
多观察，多研究，多思考别人的失败和烦恼。

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan”, has an analogy that can be borrowed:
《黑天鹅》的作者纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）有一个可以借用的类比：

A cup of water, placed in the freezer, will freeze into ice. The shape of that cup (the shape of the water before it freezes into ice) can be inferred from the shape of the ice it becomes.
一杯水，放在冰箱里，会结冰。那个杯子的形状（水在冻结成冰之前的形状）可以从它变成的冰的形状中推断出来。

Conversely, if a piece of ice is placed on a table, and then melts, looking at the shape of that water, you cannot ever deduce what the shape of the ice was before it melted…
相反，如果一块冰放在桌子上，然后融化，看看水的形状，你永远无法推断出冰在融化之前的形状……

Nassim Nicholas Taleb says, different research directions result in different research difficulties. My point is, different research focuses also result in different research difficulties. Researching others’ failures is like the first scenario; researching others’ successes is like the second scenario.
纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）说，不同的研究方向导致不同的研究难点。我的观点是，不同的研究重点也会导致不同的研究困难。研究别人的失败就像第一种情况;研究他人的成功就像第二种情况。

I have always believed that researching others’ successes is difficult because many factors are actually hidden; researching others’ failures is relatively easy because there are more openly available factors to study… More importantly, researching others’ failures is more instructive than studying others’ successes.
我一直认为，研究别人的成功是困难的，因为许多因素实际上是隐藏的;研究他人的失败相对容易，因为有更多公开可用的因素可以研究……更重要的是，研究别人的失败比研究别人的成功更有启发性。

Seeing others fail, seeing others encounter troubles, one should contemplate how to avoid such failures and troubles — in fact, this is something people do every day! After a heavy rain in Beijing, someone was tragically trapped and suffocated inside their car. Many people later realized, after widespread inquiries, that although the glass couldn’t be broken, they could escape from the trunk… and later learned that some cars couldn’t do this!
看到别人失败，看到别人遇到麻烦，就应该思考如何避免这样的失败和烦恼——其实这是人们每天都在做的事情！北京下过大雨后，有人不幸被困在车内窒息而死。许多人后来意识到，经过广泛的询问，虽然玻璃不能破碎，但他们可以从后备箱中逃脱……后来才知道，有些车做不到这一点！