Financial management: Understanding the cycle 财务管理：了解周期

The cycle is the most crucial consideration in financial investment activities, a concept and reality that must be learned, studied, mastered, and followed before starting practice, but unfortunately, it is often ignored. The cycle is also omitted in most financial books on the market or is simply brushed over, but it is actually the most basic and critical knowledge point.
周期是金融投资活动中最关键的考虑因素，在开始实践之前必须学习、研究、掌握和遵循的概念和现实，但不幸的是，它经常被忽视。这个周期在市场上的大多数金融书籍中也被省略了，或者干脆被忽略了，但它实际上是最基本和最关键的知识点。

Without a deep understanding of the cycle, effective judgment cannot be made. The entire financial investment activity would essentially be an act of judgment, or worse, no better than two people gambling with a coin toss. In such a situation, Murphy’s law will surely come into play: if something can go wrong, it will.
如果没有对周期的深刻理解，就无法做出有效的判断。整个金融投资活动本质上是一种判断行为，或者更糟的是，并不比两个人用掷硬币赌博好。在这种情况下，墨菲定律肯定会发挥作用：如果有什么事情可能出错，它就会出错。

The concept of the cycle is often replaced by the word “trend” in the mouths of many investors and financial planners. They might say, “Now is an upward trend” or “Now is a downward trend.” While this description may sometimes be useful, more often than not it is shallow and dangerous because an upward trend must be followed by a downward trend to form a complete cycle. In reality, a true trend often needs to be shown after multiple cycles (at least two). If we explore the true trend, we will discover that the up and down are just the representation of a truth –– there are no straight lines in the real economy, only waves (or fluctuations).
在许多投资者和理财规划师的口中，周期的概念经常被“趋势”一词所取代。他们可能会说，“现在是上升趋势”或“现在是下降趋势”。虽然这种描述有时可能是有用的，但更多时候它是肤浅和危险的，因为上升趋势之后必须有下降趋势才能形成一个完整的周期。实际上，真正的趋势通常需要在多个周期（至少两个周期）后显示。如果我们探索真正的趋势，我们会发现，涨跌只是一个事实的表象——实体经济中没有直线，只有波浪（或波动）。

In a very long wave band, from any point of view, it looks like being on a straight line rather than a curve, just as we stand on the earth but it is difficult to perceive that we are actually on a sphere rather than a plane.
在一个很长的波段中，从任何角度来看，它看起来都像是在一条直线上而不是一条曲线上，就像我们站在地球上一样，但很难察觉到我们实际上是在一个球体而不是一个平面上。

An upward and a downward trend constitute a cycle. After two or more cycles, if we find that the curve seems like the sine curve in a math textbook, the so-called “trend” is actually just a horizontal line. What we often say and seek as so-called “trends” should instead be either an upward or a downward line because “horizontal” equals “no change.” No change means no trend. This explains why a so-called trend identified by some people is not considered a trend by others because the latter focuses on the real trend that appears after more than one cycle. This also explains why people who “follow the rise and kill the fall” are bound to lose because what they see is not the actual trend, and what they seize is just an illusion.
上升和下降趋势构成一个循环。经过两个或两个以上的循环后，如果我们发现这条曲线看起来像数学教科书中的正弦曲线，那么所谓的“趋势”实际上只是一条水平线。我们常说和寻求的所谓“趋势”应该是一条上升线或一条下降线，因为“水平”等于“没有变化”。没有变化就意味着没有趋势。这就解释了为什么一些人确定的所谓趋势不被其他人视为趋势，因为后者关注的是经过一个以上周期后出现的真实趋势。这也解释了为什么“跟涨杀跌”的人必然会输，因为他们看到的不是实际趋势，他们抓住的只是幻觉。

Focusing on the cycle and the true trends that emerge from multiple cycles will give you a whole new and more reliable world and perspective. Every time a major technological revolution occurs, there is a group of investors who end up losing big. Why? Because they see the so-called “trends,” but forget or are unaware that the real trend needs more than one cycle to truly manifest. Let’s review history – the internet, NetPC (later known as “cloud” technology) – they all follow this pattern. Take Bitcoin, for example, something I relatively understand well. Currently, Bitcoin is causing a lot of anger. A profound understanding of the cycle may even impact a person’s character. In my view, what is often described as persistence and perseverance is mostly due to a deep understanding of one’s position within a specific cycle, making decision-making easier.
专注于周期和从多个周期中出现的真实趋势将为您提供一个全新的、更可靠的世界和视角。每当发生重大的技术革命时，都会有一群投资者最终损失惨重。为什么？因为他们看到了所谓的“趋势”，但忘记或没有意识到真正的趋势需要不止一个周期才能真正显现出来。让我们回顾一下历史——互联网、NetPC（后来被称为“云”技术）——它们都遵循这种模式。以比特币为例，我比较了解的东西。目前，比特币引起了很多愤怒。对周期的深刻理解甚至可能影响一个人的性格。在我看来，通常所说的坚持和毅力主要是由于对自己在特定周期中的位置的深刻理解，使决策更容易。

In fact, if you need a financial or insurance advisor, you will find that true professional financial planners and insurance agents ultimately start with your situation, specifically from the point at which you find yourself in the life cycle and economic cycle, in order to develop your financial plan.
事实上，如果你需要一个财务或保险顾问，你会发现真正的专业财务规划师和保险代理人最终会从你的情况开始，特别是从你发现自己处于生命周期和经济周期的点开始，以制定你的财务计划。

For financial planning, I didn’t intend to write this article as a “how-to guide” because it wouldn’t hold much significance. People involved in finance and investment are all different. It’s like a zoo – there are tigers, lions, parrots, peacocks, crocodiles, snakes, and many insects in unknown corners – each with their own way of surviving, their own strengths and weaknesses, and not too many actually meaningful, universal, and applicable strategic advantages. In this article, I try to outline the key points, the “way,” while the “method” content needs to be learned, researched, and honed by the readers themselves.
对于财务规划，我不打算把这篇文章写成“操作指南”，因为它没有多大意义。从事金融和投资的人都是不同的。这就像一个动物园——老虎、狮子、鹦鹉、孔雀、鳄鱼、蛇和许多昆虫在未知的角落里——每个人都有自己的生存方式，自己的长处和短处，没有太多真正有意义的、普遍的和适用的战略优势。在这篇文章中，我试图概述关键点，即“方法”，而“方法”的内容需要读者自己学习、研究和磨练。

If there’s one thing to point out, it would be: strong reproductive ability is the key. Applied to finance and investment, it means the more you save, the better.
如果有一件事要指出，那就是：强大的繁殖能力是关键。应用于金融和投资，这意味着您储蓄的越多越好。

Too simple, right? Simple to the point where it seems unnecessary to educate or study. However, this is a dilemma and difficulty faced when imparting important knowledge – the more important something is, the less relevant it may seem. For example, quality of life is actually more closely related to aesthetic ability and less related to money, yet money seems to be the most important and considered the most important factor. Similarly, when I used to teach English, I discovered that methods of vocabulary memorization, finding native speakers as learning environments, are actually not as important as another simple word – usage. The more important something is, the simpler it seems after it has been said, making it easy for people to overlook. Also, the climax is actually closely related to the brain.
太简单了，对吧？简单到似乎没有必要进行教育或学习的地步。然而，这是传授重要知识时面临的困境和困难——事情越重要，它似乎就越不相关。例如，生活质量实际上与审美能力的关系更密切，与金钱的关系较小，但金钱似乎是最重要的，被认为是最重要的因素。同样，当我以前教英语时，我发现词汇记忆的方法，找到母语人士作为学习环境，实际上并不像另一个简单的词——用法那么重要。越重要的事情，说完之后就越简单，让人容易忽略。此外，高潮实际上与大脑密切相关。

Originally posted 2024-04-06 11:10:38.