Personal Finance: Don’t be “Risk Blind” 个人理财：不要“风险盲目”
Assuming two people are playing a fair coin-flipping game with a constant bet, the game continues until one party loses everything. What ultimately determines the outcome (select one)?
假设两个人正在玩一个公平的掷硬币游戏，并不断下注，游戏继续进行，直到一方输掉一切。最终决定结果的是什么（选择一个）？
A. Luck B. Who flips the coin first C. Number of coin flips D. Total game duration E. All of the above F. None of the above
A. 运气 B.谁先掷硬币 C. 掷硬币的次数 D. 游戏总持续时间 E.以上所有 F.以上都不是
“Risk Blind” is a term I coined by borrowing the structure of “illiterate”. It refers to those who are unaware of risks, don’t know how to avoid them, and have no idea how to control them. The illiterate may be at a disadvantage in life, but the risk-blind are even more so. Illiteracy can be overcome through (self-) education, and the same goes for risk-blindness.
“风险盲目”是我借用“文盲”结构创造的一个术语。它指的是那些不知道风险，不知道如何避免风险，不知道如何控制风险的人。文盲可能在生活中处于劣势，但对风险视而不见的人更是如此。文盲可以通过（自我）教育来克服，风险盲目也是如此。
Risk education should be part of financial education, and even the most essential part of education as a whole. It’s hard to understand why it has been continually overlooked, with at most some fire drill simulations in schools. In reality, fires are just one type of risk, with a term called “systemic risk caused by force majeure”. This is why we need to constantly educate ourselves. Relying solely on others for teachings is never enough; you must rely on yourself to learn. As for “You’re never too old to learn”, in reality, it’s just a way of life.
风险教育应该是金融教育的一部分，甚至是整个教育中最重要的部分。很难理解为什么它一直被忽视，最多在学校里进行一些消防演习模拟。实际上，火灾只是其中一种风险，其术语称为“不可抗力引起的系统性风险”。这就是为什么我们需要不断地教育自己。仅仅依靠他人的教导是远远不够的;你必须依靠自己来学习。至于“你永远不会太老而无法学习”，实际上，这只是一种生活方式。
If you had any hesitations or chose an answer other than “F” in the above survey, then you are likely to be somewhat risk-blind. However, in the time it takes to read this article, you’ve essentially been “educated”— which is not a difficult task in itself.
如果你在上述调查中有任何犹豫或选择了“F”以外的答案，那么你很可能在某种程度上对风险视而不见。然而，在阅读这篇文章的时间里，你基本上已经“受过教育”——这本身并不是一项艰巨的任务。
First, calmly accept the first fact: Risk is an objective presence.
首先，冷静地接受第一个事实：风险是一种客观的存在。
Risk is there, 365 days a year, and it won’t change because you’re afraid of it or if you ignore it. In a broad sense, even if you do nothing, risk is always present.
风险就在那里，一年365天，它不会因为你害怕它或忽视它而改变。从广义上讲，即使你什么都不做，风险也总是存在的。
Why does risk almost always exist? Because of the second fact: Once there’s an unknown, there’s a risk.
为什么风险几乎总是存在的？因为第二个事实：一旦有未知数，就会有风险。
To understand, study, avoid, and even control risk, people have created a branch of mathematics— probability statistics. This is a subject that almost everyone should take seriously, but it seems the vast majority of people only do so for exams and then “return” them to the teachers.
为了理解、研究、规避甚至控制风险，人们创造了数学的一个分支——概率统计。这是几乎每个人都应该认真对待的科目，但似乎绝大多数人只是为了考试而这样做，然后将它们“归还”给老师。
Among those who have studied a bit of probability, there’s a common misconception that “the probability of risk determines the size of the risk”, when in reality, the primary factor in measuring risk is not the probability of the risk. This is almost the most critical fact in avoiding risk blindness.
在那些研究过一点概率的人中，有一个普遍的误解，即“风险的概率决定了风险的大小”，而实际上，衡量风险的主要因素不是风险的概率。这几乎是避免风险盲目的最关键事实。
Thirdly, the determinant factor in measuring the size of risk is the size of the bet.
第三，衡量风险大小的决定性因素是赌注的大小。
Regarding the previous survey question, the outcome of the game is ultimately determined by whoever has a larger stake. As the bet size is constant and the coin toss is a 1/2 probability game, if both sides have an equal stake, then both have a 1/2 chance of winning or losing. However, if one party has a greater stake, their chances of winning are also greater. This means that in this game, the more significant the bet relative to the opponent’s, the probability of losing tends towards zero.
关于前面的调查问题，博弈的结果最终取决于谁拥有更大的赌注。由于赌注大小是恒定的，抛硬币是 1/2 概率游戏，如果双方的赌注相等，那么双方都有 1/2 的输赢机会。但是，如果一方拥有更大的利益，他们获胜的机会也更大。这意味着在这场比赛中，相对于对手的赌注越重要，输掉的概率趋于零。
If you participate in this game and find that the “constant size of the bet” is larger than your total gambling capital, you should not participate. Even if your betting capital is only enough for one bet, and the probability of winning is still 1/2, in the long run, you will have no chance of winning.
如果您参与此游戏并发现“赌注的恒定大小”大于您的总赌博资金，则不应参与。即使你的投注资金只够下一次赌注，中奖概率还是1/2，但从长远来看，你根本没有获胜的机会。
Many people seem unlucky throughout their lives, but in reality, this so-called “bad luck” has a reason. Their understanding of risk is wrong; the only reason they are unlucky is that they often risk everything.
很多人一辈子看似不走运，但实际上，这种所谓的“倒霉”是有原因的。他们对风险的理解是错误的;他们不走运的唯一原因是他们经常冒着一切风险。
If the bet is too large, it means the outcome is unbearable. Why do people with little gambling capital tend to bet big? It is said that the worse off a person is, the bigger their dreams. They are risk-blind, often risking their lives unknowingly, such as driving fast on the highway without wearing a seatbelt. People who take frequent risks are risk-blind, just as those who put all their assets into the stock market, and even borrow money, are risk-blind.
如果赌注太大，则意味着结果是无法忍受的。为什么赌博资本少的人往往会下大赌注？有人说，一个人的境况越糟糕，他们的梦想就越大。他们不顾风险，经常在不知不觉中冒着生命危险，例如在不系安全带的情况下在高速公路上快速行驶。经常冒险的人是风险盲目的，就像那些把所有资产都投入股市，甚至借钱的人是风险盲目的。
The above discussion actually involves a fourth important fact. The essence of risk tolerance is essentially the size of the total gambling capital, especially when facing the same probability of risk. Conversely, with a constant bet and a relatively unlimited gambling capital, even if facing a 99.99% risk probability, players are indifferent because the bet is relatively small. There’s no problem with taking a risk, but try not to be “skimmed”.
上述讨论实际上涉及第四个重要事实。风险承受能力的本质本质上是总赌博资本的规模，尤其是在面临相同风险概率时。相反，在恒定的赌注和相对无限的赌博资本下，即使面临99.99%的风险概率，玩家也会无动于衷，因为赌注相对较小。冒险没有问题，但尽量不要被“略读”。
“Skimming” is a term used in the gambling world, referring to a certain proportion of the winner’s profits that must be paid to the house. Don’t assume that gambling establishments are too sly; in reality, there are expenses involved in running a fair gambling operation. So, players paying a skimming fee is reasonable. Additionally, don’t think that stock exchanges are greedy; the commission fees they charge are also reasonable, this is the ubiquitous and unavoidable “cost”.
“撇脂”是赌博界使用的一个术语，指的是必须支付给庄家的获胜者利润的一定比例。不要以为赌博场所太狡猾;实际上，经营公平的赌博业务涉及费用。因此，玩家支付撇脂费是合理的。此外，不要以为证券交易所是贪婪的;他们收取的佣金也很合理，这是无处不在且不可避免的“成本”。
Fairness has a cost. Games with a skimming mechanism are inherently skewed. Even in a coin-tossing game, with the skimming mechanism, in the long run, all players will end up losing, and all bets will ultimately be converted into the skimmer’s profit. This is like transforming a sine wave function into a damped sine wave function.
公平是有代价的。具有略读机制的游戏本质上是倾斜的。即使在抛硬币游戏中，使用撇脂机制，从长远来看，所有玩家最终都会输，所有赌注最终都会转化为撇油器的利润。这就像将正弦波函数转换为阻尼正弦波函数一样。
Originally posted 2024-04-06 11:15:00.