How to study new phenomena? 如何研究新现象？

Undoubtedly, an operating system that can switch modes is more advanced. As we mentioned earlier, an operating system that can actively switch between “fly mode” and “bee mode” has amazing capabilities in effortlessly transitioning across different domains.
毫无疑问，可以切换模式的操作系统更先进。正如我们之前提到的，可以在“飞行模式”和“蜜蜂模式”之间主动切换的操作系统具有毫不费力地跨不同域转换的惊人功能。

The majority of people tend to live in a one-track manner. They prefer everything to have a single, correct, and standard answer, way, or means. Once the answer is “it depends,” they become disoriented and enter a frozen state.
大多数人倾向于以单轨方式生活。他们更喜欢一切都有一个单一的、正确的和标准的答案、方式或手段。一旦答案是“视情况而定”，他们就会迷失方向并进入冻结状态。

How to face and study new phenomena? It is a good example and test. Most people actually use a consistent mode (of course, it is their only mode) to face and study new phenomena. But in reality, when facing new phenomena, it is essential to switch modes; otherwise, it becomes practically impossible to confront or thoroughly study them.
如何面对和研究新现象？这是一个很好的例子和测试。大多数人实际上使用一致的模式（当然，这是他们唯一的模式）来面对和研究新现象。但实际上，在面对新现象时，必须切换模式;否则，几乎不可能面对或彻底研究它们。

Usually, when faced with a new proposal or a concept that we had not previously considered, we are accustomed to “focusing on the drawbacks first.” Many times, the reason we did not think of it is not because the idea is innovative, but because we are ignorant or have limited knowledge…
通常，当面对我们以前没有考虑过的新提案或概念时，我们习惯于“先关注缺点”。很多时候，我们之所以没有想到，并不是因为这个想法是创新的，而是因为我们无知或知识有限……

Why are we accustomed to focusing on the drawbacks first? It is natural because we have learned to be cautious. With time, every experience, regardless of whether it is good or bad, is compiled and summarized into our experiences, serving as a “touchstone” for accepting new things. We have all suffered losses, those who have not suffered losses are definitely too young, and have too little experience. Hence, we need to examine “what other drawbacks have I not considered?” This thinking pattern is effective in normal circumstances.
为什么我们习惯于先关注缺点？这是很自然的，因为我们已经学会了谨慎。随着时间的流逝，每一次经历，无论好坏，都会被整理和总结成我们的经验，成为接受新事物的“试金石”。我们都吃过亏，没有吃亏的肯定太年轻，经验太少。因此，我们需要检查“我还有哪些缺点没有考虑过？这种思维模式在正常情况下是有效的。

For instance, when a friend proposes to open a restaurant, whether discussing its feasibility, specific location, or cuisine selection, we should spend a considerable amount of time researching what other drawbacks need to be addressed. However, when we face new phenomena, this thinking pattern is often ineffective and subtlety harmful – it’s just that the vast majority of people are not aware of it.
例如，当朋友提议开一家餐厅时，无论是讨论其可行性、具体位置还是美食选择，我们都应该花大量时间研究还需要解决哪些其他缺点。然而，当我们面对新的现象时，这种思维模式往往是无效的，而且是微妙的有害的——只是绝大多数人没有意识到这一点。

Some new phenomena are “pseudo-new phenomena,” such as the clothing and appearance of teenagers, where it is not really “new.” In fact, every generation of people in their childhood tries to appear different from the previous generation starting from the outward appearance. Ultimately, the majority gradually become exactly the same as the previous generation, regardless of whether they admit it or not.
一些新现象是“伪新现象”，例如青少年的衣着和外表，并不是真正的“新”。事实上，每一代人在童年时期都试图从外表上看起来与上一代人不同。最终，大多数人逐渐变得与上一代人完全相同，无论他们是否承认。

Although the core characteristic of new phenomena is that they are “unprecedented” or “sufficiently disruptive,” it does not necessarily mean that new phenomena are repulsive. Some new phenomena receive universal acclaim, such as the current VR technology, which seems to be liked by everyone; or “big data,” which seems to naturally belong to the future… However, for many more significant new phenomena, at the time of their initial emergence, they encounter widespread opposition, scorn, and disdain… even if they are more open-minded, it is still just “skepticism.” For example, the heliocentric theory and evolution that once angered the world, the suddenly free-flowing internet that allowed the free flow of information, and now the suddenly emerging Bitcoin that allows assets to flow freely…
虽然新现象的核心特征是“史无前例”或“具有足够的破坏性”，但这并不一定意味着新现象是令人厌恶的。一些新现象获得了普遍的赞誉，比如现在的VR技术，似乎受到了大家的喜爱;或者是“大数据”，似乎自然而然地属于未来……然而，对于许多更重要的新现象，在它们最初出现时，它们会遇到广泛的反对、蔑视和蔑视……即使他们思想更加开放，也只是“怀疑主义”。比如曾经激怒世界的日心说和进化论，让信息自由流动的突然自由流动的互联网，以及现在突然出现的让资产自由流动的比特币……

First, we need to note a phenomenon – any new phenomenon is not perfect. In fact, whether in the past, present, or future, at any point in time, every new phenomenon that appears is not perfect. The reason it appears, fundamentally, is only because it is relatively better than its predecessor. Once it succeeds, it is no longer a new phenomenon; it becomes part of the existing world, waiting to be overturned by the next new phenomenon – a few years later, or a few decades later, or even hundreds or thousands of years later. Ultimately, embracing any new phenomenon is not because it is perfect, but because it is relatively better.
首先，我们需要注意一个现象——任何新现象都不是完美的。事实上，无论是过去、现在还是未来，在任何时间点，每一个出现的新现象都不是完美的。从根本上说，它出现的原因只是因为它比它的前身相对更好。一旦成功，就不再是新现象;它成为现有世界的一部分，等待被下一个新现象推翻——几年后，几十年后，甚至几百年或几千年后。归根结底，拥抱任何新现象并不是因为它是完美的，而是因为它相对更好。

So, when facing or studying new phenomena, we should focus on its advantages, not its drawbacks. In other words, we should switch our operating system from “prioritizing the focus on the drawbacks mode” to “prioritizing the focus on the advantages mode.”
因此，在面对或研究新现象时，我们应该关注它的优点，而不是它的缺点。换言之，我们应该将操作系统从“优先关注缺点模式”切换为“优先关注优势模式”。

If one fails to realize the need to adjust their mindset and continues to approach and study new things using a “focus on weaknesses” model, the inevitable outcome will be:
如果一个人没有意识到调整心态的必要性，并继续使用“关注弱点”的模型来接近和研究新事物，那么不可避免的结果将是：
Absurd! Absolutely useless! How can this be? Nonsense!
荒谬！绝对没用！这怎么可能？废话！
If one uses a “focus on strengths” model to approach and study things that are not actually novel, the typical conclusion will likely be “naive” at best.
如果一个人使用“关注优势”的模型来接近和研究实际上并不新颖的事物，那么典型的结论充其量可能是“幼稚的”。
After scrutinizing people’s debates about new things, one will ultimately find that in most cases, people are “single-minded”: some seem naturally inclined to the “focus on weaknesses” mode, while others seem predisposed to the “focus on strengths” mode, with very few willingly switching. Consequently, various arguments are mixed up, making rational discussion almost impossible. (What is the difference between discussion and argument?)
在仔细研究人们对新事物的争论之后，人们最终会发现，在大多数情况下，人们是“一心一意”的：有些人似乎天生倾向于“关注弱点”模式，而另一些人似乎倾向于“关注优势”模式，很少有人愿意转换。因此，各种论点混为一谈，使得理性讨论几乎是不可能的。（讨论和争论有什么区别？
Of course, a thoroughly single-minded person is one who “only focuses” on strengths or weaknesses, rather than “prioritizing focus”…
当然，一个完全一心一意的人是“只关注”长处或短处，而不是“优先考虑焦点”的人……
If you carefully observe those who automatically use analogies when discussing new things, they are generally single-minded individuals, and are also more likely to be inclined towards the “focus on weaknesses” mode. While analogy was originally a sophisticated thinking tool, they have used it incorrectly, or more precisely, they have fallen into subtle traps when it comes to details.
如果你仔细观察那些在讨论新事物时自动使用类比的人，他们通常是一心一意的人，也更有可能倾向于“关注弱点”模式。虽然类比最初是一种复杂的思维工具，但他们错误地使用了它，或者更准确地说，他们在细节方面陷入了微妙的陷阱。
Analogies are meant to help us understand new things; they shouldn’t be used to define them.
类比是为了帮助我们理解新事物;它们不应该被用来定义它们。
New things may indeed resemble certain old things in some ways, but they certainly aren’t completely the same, otherwise they wouldn’t be new, right? Additionally, because they are new, the similarities aren’t actually important, what’s important are the differences, correct? Yet, most people carelessly take analogies as definitions or use them, falling into traps without realizing it.
新事物在某些方面可能确实与某些旧事物相似，但它们肯定不完全相同，否则它们就不是新的了，对吧？此外，因为它们是新的，所以相似之处实际上并不重要，重要的是差异，对吗？然而，大多数人粗心大意地将类比作为定义或使用它们，在不知不觉中落入陷阱。
Around 2010, Twitter was considered a “new thing,” in a sense it was truly unprecedented… When faced with someone who hadn’t used Twitter, providing a typical response to what Twitter really is might be: “Isn’t it just like a QQ signature?!” In reality, in the face of such feedback, the entire discussion has truly come to an end, since such a mindset is unable to genuinely understand new things. Eventually, those who think this way will accept new things – after a vast majority understand and accept them, they treat these things as “a matter of course,” which is also quite relaxing for them.
2010 年左右，Twitter 被认为是一个“新事物”，从某种意义上说，它确实是前所未有的……当面对一个没有使用过Twitter的人时，对Twitter的真正含义给出一个典型的回应可能是：“它不就像一个QQ签名吗？！实际上，面对这样的反馈，整个讨论真的走到了尽头，因为这样的心态无法真正理解新事物。最终，那些有这种想法的人会接受新事物——在绝大多数人理解并接受它们之后，他们把这些东西视为“理所当然的事情”，这对他们来说也是相当放松的。
On ordinary days, significant differences may not be apparent, and even those who are single-minded seem to have an advantage, as they not only feel at ease, but also secure – which is very important for them.
在平常的日子里，显着的差异可能并不明显，即使是那些一心一意的人似乎也有优势，因为他们不仅感到自在，而且感到安全——这对他们来说非常重要。
However, once you step into the investment arena, such an operating system is completely useless, because the core essence of investment behavior is as follows:
但是，一旦踏入投资领域，这样的操作系统就完全没用了，因为投资行为的核心本质如下：
Investment must be self-reliant, so it can only be and must be based on independent thought.
投资必须是自力更生的，所以它只能而且必须建立在独立思考的基础上。
Only by investing in the future, is there a real chance of success, and investment returns might be significant.
只有投资于未来，才有真正的成功机会，投资回报可能很大。
I am personally grateful for this era, feeling fortunate because in this era, the individual investment environment – whether investing in oneself, financial investments, or even venture capital – is significantly better than before. At the same time, truly new things are constantly emerging. This means that the opportunities for learning and investment are almost limitless – only in such a period, can knowledge be realized, and the amount of knowledge realized could be enormous. Simply put, in my previous generation – in my father’s time – there was no such era of blessings.
我个人对这个时代心存感激，感到很幸运，因为在这个时代，个人的投资环境——无论是投资自己、金融投资，甚至是风险投资——都比以前好得多。与此同时，真正的新事物也在不断涌现。这意味着学习和投资的机会几乎是无限的——只有在这样的时期，知识才能实现，实现的知识量可能是巨大的。简单地说，在我上一代人——在我父亲的时代——没有这样的祝福时代。
Learning is an investment in one’s future, where you invest your free time and energy, along with a small amount of money in yourself. Some people joke that if you’re not attractive, you should read more; in reality, I think that people who don’t have massive inheritances should study more… Unfortunately, most people are hindered by the “force of gravity,” so in their world, anti-intellectualism is mainstream.
学习是对未来的投资，你投入你的空闲时间和精力，以及少量的钱在自己身上。有人开玩笑说，如果你没有吸引力，你应该多读书;实际上，我认为没有大量遗产的人应该多学习……不幸的是，大多数人都受到“重力”的阻碍，所以在他们的世界里，反智主义是主流。
So, in my view, coarsely dividing people into “optimists” and “pessimists” is actually meaningless. In my eyes, people are divided into two types, those who actively upgrade their operating system, and those who don’t; those who actively upgrade their operating system can be further divided into those who are multi-modal and those who are single-modal… Aside from when we need to adjust modes for cross-border and new research, we need to adjust modes in many more ways…
所以，在我看来，粗略地把人分为“乐观主义者”和“悲观主义者”其实是没有意义的。在我眼中，人分为两种类型，一种是主动升级操作系统的，另一种是不主动升级操作系统的;那些积极升级操作系统的人可以进一步分为多模式的和单模式的……除了需要调整跨界和新研究的模式之外，我们还需要以更多方式调整模式……

Originally posted 2024-04-06 09:33:22.