Financial Management: Emphasis on Learning 财务管理：重视学习
Managing money or investing, abandoning courage and focusing on knowledge.
管理金钱或投资，放弃勇气，专注于知识。
Courage has always been a quality universally encouraged in all societies and throughout history. Conversely, cowardice has always been widely despised. It seems that many major advances in history have been the result of taking risks.
勇气一直是所有社会和整个历史普遍鼓励的品质。相反，怯懦一直被广泛鄙视。历史上的许多重大进步似乎都是冒险的结果。
Imagine yourself in ancient times, struggling with malnutrition every day. Why? Without enough tools, you could only gather fruits and occasionally have some meat, which you could only eat raw. Why? Because there was no fire.
想象一下自己在远古时代，每天都在与营养不良作斗争。为什么？没有足够的工具，你只能收集水果，偶尔吃一些肉，你只能生吃。为什么？因为没有火。
Fire has always been something to fear, hasn’t it? Suddenly, one day, a forest catches fire—a natural disaster that only occurs once in a lifetime—though “lifetime” wasn’t very long at that time. Everyone starts running, and as they do, a tiger runs past you—before, it would have chased you, but now it doesn’t even notice you. Later, a wolf scurries past you—before, it would have chased you, but now it doesn’t even notice you. Both used to run faster than you, but now they are being chased by something even more ferocious. As you keep running, you catch a scent of cooked meat, even though you don’t know what that means. Finally, you and some people in the tribe escape the disaster, but now you still have to work hard to find food. However, this time it’s different—some animals are cooked—everyone discovers that cooked meat tastes different! So, brave individuals return to find fire, and “nurture” the fire. Since then, fire has brought many disasters to humanity, but it cannot be denied that from that moment (although it is impossible to know exactly when that was), humanity entered another stage—seeking progress despite danger (of course, it was more dangerous without fire), at least starting to eat cooked meat.
火一直是令人恐惧的东西，不是吗？突然有一天，一片森林着火了——一种一生只发生一次的自然灾害——尽管当时的“一生”并不长。每个人都开始奔跑，当他们跑的时候，一只老虎从你身边跑过——以前，它会追你，但现在它甚至没有注意到你。后来，一只狼从你身边窜过——以前，它会追赶你，但现在它甚至没有注意到你。两人以前都跑得比你快，但现在他们被更凶猛的东西追赶。当你继续奔跑时，你会闻到一股熟肉的气味，即使你不知道这意味着什么。最后，你和部落中的一些人逃过了灾难，但现在你仍然需要努力寻找食物。然而，这一次不同——有些动物是煮熟的——每个人都发现煮熟的肉味道不同！因此，勇敢的人回来寻找火，并“培育”火。从那时起，火给人类带来了许多灾难，但不可否认的是，从那一刻起（尽管不可能确切地知道那是什么时候），人类进入了另一个阶段——尽管有危险（当然，没有火会更危险），至少开始吃熟肉。
Today, people can fly from Beijing to New York in about 13 hours, something unimaginable for ancient people who faced the West wind and rode thin horses along ancient roads. But isn’t it thanks to the many adventurers in the world that we have airplanes? In the process of aviation technology becoming commercialized, one person played a huge role: Howard Hughes. He was a madman, risking his life countless times, and every person who has enjoyed air travel should thank him at least once. In a sense, it was precisely his unparalleled madness that made people crazy about him.
如今，人们从北京飞到纽约大约需要13个小时，这对于迎着西风，骑着瘦马走古道的古人来说，是不可想象的。但是，难道不是因为世界上有许多冒险家，我们才有了飞机吗？在航空技术商业化的过程中，有一个人发挥了巨大的作用：霍华德·休斯。他是个疯子，无数次冒着生命危险，每个享受过航空旅行的人都应该至少感谢他一次。从某种意义上说，正是他无与伦比的疯狂，让人们为他疯狂。
In our genes, we are obsessed with adventure. Contrary to popular belief, women have a greater tendency and obsession with danger than men. In everyday life, we often encounter examples of women enjoying such thrills more than men, despite their screams being more intense in “simulated danger” activities such as roller coasters and bungee jumping, which actually pose little risk.
在我们的基因中，我们痴迷于冒险。与普遍的看法相反，女性比男性更倾向于和痴迷于危险。在日常生活中，我们经常遇到女性比男性更享受这种刺激的例子，尽管她们在过山车和蹦极等“模拟危险”活动中尖叫声更强烈，但实际上风险很小。
However, from another perspective, people often have a superficial understanding of courage and bravery, never seriously examining, or even simply ignoring it. What lies behind courage and bravery? For example, when children fight and face off, it’s mostly determined by innate qualities—those who are physically strong are more likely to be “brave,” while those with weak constitutions are more likely to be “timid.” Upon reflection, this association with courage is not 100% accurate—it’s not even exclusively related to courage, but rather to the strength of one’s constitution.
然而，从另一个角度来看，人们对勇气和勇敢的理解往往很肤浅，从不认真审视，甚至干脆忽略了它。勇气和勇敢的背后是什么？例如，当孩子打架和对峙时，这主要是由先天素质决定的——身体强壮的人更有可能“勇敢”，而体质虚弱的人更有可能“胆小”。仔细想想，这种与勇气的联系并不是100%准确的——它甚至不完全与勇气有关，而是与一个人的体质强度有关。
There is a saying, “When two tigers fight, the brave one wins.” This is indeed a real scenario. In situations where both sides are evenly matched, the one who is braver ultimately wins. But the question is, why is the victorious side braver? A more plausible explanation is that one side realized—everyone is afraid, you are afraid, and we are afraid too. But if I don’t show you that I am afraid, you will become even more afraid, giving me a relative advantage. At this point, so-called courage is no longer an abstract trait, but rather a relative and sophisticated calculation (or scheme).
有句话说：“两只老虎打架，勇敢者获胜。这确实是一个真实的场景。在双方势均力敌的情况下，谁更勇敢，谁就赢了。但问题是，为什么胜利的一方更勇敢？一个更合理的解释是，一方意识到了——每个人都害怕，你害怕，我们也害怕。但是如果我不向你表明我害怕，你会变得更加害怕，给我一个相对的优势。至此，所谓勇气不再是一种抽象的特质，而是一种相对而复杂的计算（或方案）。
Generally speaking, men are actually quite “miserable.” Because for a long time, in almost all cultures, men have been expected to be more “masculine,” more “strong,” and more “courageous”—if they are afraid of a little danger, how could they achieve great things! Thus, even if they have to pretend, they must appear brave. Over time, men have come to believe it themselves.
一般来说，男人其实是相当“惨”的。因为很长一段时间以来，在几乎所有的文化中，男人都被期望更“阳刚”，更“坚强”，更“勇敢”——如果他们害怕一点危险，他们怎么可能取得伟大的成就！因此，即使他们不得不假装，他们也必须显得勇敢。随着时间的流逝，人们自己也开始相信这一点。
However, not everyone fails to realize the significant difference between “bravery” and “courage.” Su Shi stated in his “Liuhou Lun”: “An exemplary hero from ancient times must possess extraordinary integrity. For a commoner provoked by indignity, pulling out a sword and fighting is not enough for bravery. True courage is seen when a person faces sudden danger without fear or angered by unwarranted attacks. It is the possession of great composure and far-reaching aspirations.” Su Shi implied that mere barbaric bravery does not equate true courage; it is essentially worthless. Then, what is Su Shi’s definition of “great courage”? In other words, it’s a strong mind rather than physical prowess.
然而，并不是每个人都没有意识到“勇敢”和“勇气”之间的显着区别。苏轼在《流侯伦》中说：“古以来的模范英雄，必有非凡的品德。对于一个被侮辱激怒的平民来说，拔剑战斗是不够的勇敢。当一个人面对突如其来的危险而没有恐惧或被无端的攻击激怒时，就会看到真正的勇气。它拥有极大的镇定和深远的抱负。苏轼暗示，单纯的野蛮勇敢并不等同于真正的勇气;它基本上是一文不值的。那么，苏轼对“大勇气”的定义是什么呢？换句话说，这是一种强大的头脑，而不是体力。
For a long time, I have always found the term “brave and intelligent” peculiar and even unnecessary. Relying solely on innate bravery is simply “barbaric bravery,” which lacks significance. Therefore, the actual meaning of the term is as meaningless as “being intelligent and foolish.” Furthermore, modern-day individuals are already aware that physical fitness isn’t too challenging, especially in this era of readily available protein. It only takes two to three years of exercise to transform a weak physique into a robust one. Additionally, combat skills are a form of knowledge. As mentioned earlier, “knowledge brings perseverance.” In my view, the so-called bravery and courage, particularly the bravery and courage detached from inherent support, are a demonstration of knowledge and thinking.
很长一段时间以来，我一直觉得“勇敢和聪明”这个词很奇怪，甚至没有必要。仅仅依靠与生俱来的勇敢，简直就是“野蛮的勇敢”，缺乏意义。因此，这个词的实际含义与“聪明而愚蠢”一样毫无意义。此外，现代人已经意识到身体健康并不太具有挑战性，尤其是在这个蛋白质唾手可得的时代。只需要两到三年的运动就可以将虚弱的体质转变为强壮的体质。此外，战斗技能是知识的一种形式。如前所述，“知识带来毅力”。在我看来，所谓的勇敢和勇气，特别是脱离内在支撑的勇敢和勇气，是知识和思想的体现。
At the onset of finance and investment, it’s essential to understand that success has nothing to do with so-called bravery. It depends on the ability to effectively evaluate risks and returns – that’s true wisdom. The capacity for wisdom is acquirable and accumulable.
在金融和投资之初，必须明白成功与所谓的勇敢无关。这取决于有效评估风险和回报的能力——这才是真正的智慧。智慧的能力是可以获得和积累的。
Risks are always inherently present. The real issue lies in how to identify and evaluate them. It also includes calculating whether the potential returns justify the risks and if you have sufficient strength to endure them. These abilities can be obtained through learning and further improved by enhancing thinking capacity.
风险总是固有的。真正的问题在于如何识别和评估它们。它还包括计算潜在回报是否证明风险是合理的，以及您是否有足够的力量来忍受它们。这些能力可以通过学习获得，并通过增强思维能力进一步提高。
There is no reason to avoid things that are both guaranteed and promising – as a matter of fact, learning is one such thing. Unfortunately, most people do not perceive it this way. For many, things that have to be done, even with risks, have to be done – for most people, marriage and bearing offspring are such unavoidable matters. When there are risks and potential returns, and nobody is forcing you, then the choice becomes a gamble. Don’t think of “gambling” as disdainful. In reality, like “beauty,” risk is an objective existence – it’s there, whether you love it or not, neither arrogant nor abandoning.
没有理由回避既有保证又有前途的事情——事实上，学习就是这样一件事。不幸的是，大多数人并不这么认为。对许多人来说，必须做的事情，即使有风险，也必须做——对大多数人来说，结婚和生育后代是不可避免的事情。当有风险和潜在回报，而没有人强迫你时，那么选择就变成了一场赌博。不要认为“赌博”是轻蔑的。在现实中，就像“美”一样，风险是一种客观存在——它就在那里，无论你爱不爱它，既不傲慢也不放弃。
The ability to deal with risks requires time and effort to learn because it can indeed be acquired, but it’s not easily achievable. In various aspects of life, most individuals lack risk awareness. For instance, new drivers often experience fear after driving – they suddenly realize, looking at pedestrians unfazed by vehicles, that they have often crossed roads in a “life and death” state over many years. Similarly, personally, I only realized the danger of walking along the road at night wearing dark clothes after I started driving. For individuals who have never driven, certain risks “don’t exist” – they have never realized that such significant risks actually exist. Similarly, individuals who haven’t engaged in finance or investment often don’t know about many existing risks simply because they have never seen or thought about them.
应对风险的能力需要时间和精力来学习，因为它确实可以获得，但并不容易实现。在生活的各个方面，大多数人都缺乏风险意识。例如，新司机在开车后经常会感到恐惧——他们突然意识到，看着没有被车辆吓倒的行人，他们多年来经常以“生死攸关”的状态过马路。同样，就我个人而言，在我开始开车后，我才意识到晚上穿着深色衣服走在路上的危险。对于从未开车的人来说，某些风险“不存在”——他们从未意识到如此重大的风险确实存在。同样，没有从事过金融或投资的人往往不知道许多现有的风险，只是因为他们从未见过或考虑过这些风险。
Merely perceiving the existence of risks, knowing clearly how significant the risks are, to what extent, requires a great deal of observation and contemplation to truly acquire such capacity. I have asked many experts, and they all say the same thing, apart from repeatedly emphasizing “be cautious of risks.” My self-training was as follows – for a period, whenever I had time, I utilized search engines to search for various combinations of keywords, such as:
仅仅察觉到风险的存在，清楚地知道风险有多大，在多大程度上，需要大量的观察和思考才能真正获得这种能力。我问过很多专家，他们都说同样的话，除了反复强调“要小心风险”。我的自我训练如下——有一段时间，只要我有时间，我就会利用搜索引擎搜索各种关键词组合，例如：
finance disputes investment failure suicide jumping off a building
金融纠纷 投资失败 自杀 跳楼
Like clipping news articles, I collected and repeatedly read and watched various news items and comments. After several months of accumulating and studying, my understanding of risk underwent a tremendous change. This is my personal experience – perhaps it has some reference value for the readers.
就像剪报新闻文章一样，我收集并反复阅读和观看各种新闻和评论。经过几个月的积累和学习，我对风险的理解发生了巨大的变化。这是我的个人经验，也许对读者有一定的参考价值。
In reality, not only finance, but any aspect of life is the same:
实际上，不仅财务，生活的任何方面都是一样的：
Safety relies on prudence, not recklessness; on being cautious, not brave.
安全依靠的是谨慎，而不是鲁莽;谨慎，而不是勇敢。
One of the comments on my WeChat public account article was quite amusing: “If you don’t trade stocks, then you are already a winner – because everyone who does has lost.” Although it’s a witty comment, it’s worth mentioning. Historically, this has been the general trend in the stock market (the so-called secondary market):
在我的微信公众号文章上有一条评论很有趣：“如果你不交易股票，那么你已经是赢家了——因为每个交易的人都输了。虽然这是一个诙谐的评论，但值得一提。从历史上看，这是股票市场（所谓的二级市场）的总体趋势：
1 in 10,000 always wins big;
万分之一的人总是赢得大奖;
1 in 1000 wins more and loses less, also making quite a profit;
千分之一的赢多输少，也赚了不少钱;
1 in 100 frequently loses, makes some profit, but not as much as expected;
每100人中就有1人经常亏损，赚取一些利润，但没有预期的那么多;
1 in 10 has been profitable until now, the amount varies.
到目前为止，十分之一的人已经盈利，金额各不相同。
n essence, most people set out to make money, but ultimately end up “being made” because they haven’t learned or studied what the game they’re involved in is all about. They can’t even be called gamblers, because at least gamblers know how to calculate earnings based on probability, decide the number of chips to bet, and calculate the probability changes after multiple bets. So, by actually observing, it’s clear that many people enter the stock market without even gambling, and they end up losing money. They’re just human money printing machines, facilitating a “targeted increase” in the stock market. When they lose money, they don’t know how it happened or who or what to blame; they can only blame their bad luck. What some of them really have is not courage or bravery, but simply innate greed.
从本质上讲，大多数人都是为了赚钱而出发的，但最终还是“被制造”了，因为他们没有学习或研究过他们所参与的游戏的全部内容。他们甚至不能被称为赌徒，因为至少赌徒知道如何根据概率计算收益，决定下注的筹码数量，并计算多次下注后的概率变化。因此，通过实际观察，很明显，许多人甚至没有赌博就进入了股市，他们最终输了钱。它们只是人类的印钞机，促进了股市的“有针对性的增长”。当他们赔钱时，他们不知道这是怎么发生的，也不知道该怪谁或什么;他们只能责怪自己的运气不好。他们中的一些人真正拥有的不是勇气或勇敢，而只是与生俱来的贪婪。
Perhaps people wonder why so many people seem to ignore the constant advice that “the stock market involves risks and requires caution.”
也许人们想知道为什么这么多人似乎忽略了“股市涉及风险，需要谨慎”的不断建议。
The first explanation is ignorance and fearlessness. Just like the example mentioned earlier, people who haven’t driven a car don’t realize the danger of walking along dark roads at night in dark clothes, because they don’t know the danger exists in the first place.
第一种解释是无知和无所畏惧。就像前面提到的例子一样，没有开车的人没有意识到晚上穿着深色衣服走在黑暗的道路上的危险，因为他们一开始就不知道危险的存在。
The second explanation is that safety measures make people relax their vigilance. When the stock market experiences a widespread surge, experts know that this could signal danger – the so-called “even tea egg sellers are talking about stocks now”. However, for people who are unfamiliar with the stock investment industry, seeing others making money becomes a layer of “safety protection” in their consciousness; they think, “If everyone can do it, I won’t be that unlucky, will I?”
第二种解释是，安全措施使人们放松警惕。当股市经历大范围的飙升时，专家们知道这可能预示着危险——所谓的“现在连卖茶蛋的人都在谈论股票”。然而，对于不熟悉股票投资行业的人来说，看到别人赚钱就成了他们意识中的一层“安全保护”;他们想，“如果每个人都能做到，我就不会那么倒霉了，不是吗？
Just as drivers unconsciously increase their speed after fastening their seat belts, safety measures often lead people to relax their safety awareness. Hence, the controversy over seat belts: while seat belts may protect the driver, they may also pose greater danger to others and other vehicles on the road.
正如驾驶员在系好安全带后会不自觉地提高车速一样，安全措施往往会导致人们放松安全意识。因此，关于安全带的争议：虽然安全带可以保护驾驶员，但它们也可能对道路上的其他人和其他车辆构成更大的危险。
In China, those who are consistently “being made” in the stock market may also relax their vigilance due to “safety protection.” In the Chinese stock market, there are “upward limits” and “downward limits,” so many people subconsciously think, “I can lose at most 10%, I can handle it,” but often the next day, the market opens with the “downward limit,” and there’s essentially no way out.
在中国，那些在股市中持续“被制造”的人也可能因为“安全保护”而放松警惕。在中国股市中，有“上行限”和“下限”之分，所以很多人下意识地认为，“我最多能亏10%，我能应付”，但往往第二天，市场就以“下限”开盘，基本上没有出路。
Risk and return always coexist, and the magnitude of risk can be controlled through understanding and learning about it. This is the basis and expression of human progress. But evidently, it doesn’t automatically disappear or adapt to people’s actions. It’s only through learning that we can dance with it.
风险和回报总是并存的，通过理解和学习风险的大小可以控制风险的大小。这是人类进步的基础和表现。但显然，它不会自动消失或适应人们的行为。只有通过学习，我们才能与它共舞。
There’s an article in TIME worth reading, “The Hidden Danger of Seat Belts.”
《时代》杂志上有一篇文章值得一读，“安全带的隐患”。
Originally posted 2024-04-06 11:01:28.